China posted its second consecutive monthly trade surplus in June
as exports soared by a record 46.5 percent, figures from the
General Administration of Customs showed on Monday.
Exports jumped to a larger-than-expected US$50.5 billion in June
after climbing 33 percent in May, customs said. Imports were also
stronger than expected last month, surging 50.5 percent to US$48.65
billion.
In
June alone, the country managed to post a trade surplus of US$1.84
billion, the second monthly surplus this year.
China's foreign trade swung to a surplus of US$2.1 billion in May
after four consecutive months of deficit as government measures to
cool the economy led to a slowdown in imports of iron ore and
steel.
For the first half of the year, exports rose 35.7 percent to US$258
billion and imports surged 42.6 percent to US$265 billion,
resulting in a US$6.82 billion trade deficit.
Experts said the high export growth rate will help the country
ensure a soft landing.
"It is certainly encouraging that exports are not weakening," said
Li Yushi, an expert from the Chinese Academy of International Trade
and Economic Co-operation.
The record growth rate this year is helping drive economic growth
as the government reins in lending to cool an investment boom, he
said.
"It is good to offset the investment slowdown so the country will
not have a hard landing," Li said.
Surging trade may ease concerns that China's attempts to cool its
economy will slow global growth and drive down commodities prices,
he said.
Banks have curbed lending to industries including steel, autos and
real estate.
The People's Bank of China, the central bank, has raised the amount
of cash banks must set aside as reserves three times since
September.
Analysts said exports rose in June at their fastest pace this year
because of rising spending in the United States, Japan and
Europe.
But the high growth rate of imports still painted an unclear
picture of how cooling-down efforts have paid off.
The surge of 50.5 percent in imports in June, which compares with
35.4 percent growth in May and 42.9 percent in April, far outpaced
expectations.
"It is much higher than we expected," said Citigroup economist
Huang Yiping, who expected 28 percent year-on-year growth for
imports.
Customs did not release a breakdown of trade, which is crucial to
determine whether China's steps to cool its economy were working,
he said.
The rapid import growth could be due to more oil purchases, but if
it was because of a continued appetite for steel and iron ore, that
would raise questions over whether the recent slowdown in
investment growth was being sustained, the analyst said.
According to the customs statistics, crude oil imports in China
rose 39.3 percent year on year to 61.02 million tons in the first
half of 2004. Imports of iron ore surged 34.9 percent to 97.75
million tons. The imports of steel dipped 2.5 percent to 18 million
tons. Imports for June alone were not specified.
Analysts say they will look for signs of slower import growth as
more proof that government measures to rein in the economy are
working.
The Ministry of Commerce said exports were expected to rise an
annual 15 percent this year to US$505 billion, while imports were
likely to surge 20 percent to US$495 billion.
That would produce a trade surplus of US$10 billion for this year
compared to a US$25.5 billion surplus last year.
(China Daily July 13, 2004)
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