The short supply of live pigs in China will not change "fundamentally" until the second quarter next year, Bi Jingquan, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Tuesday.

"Although price hikes of pork and piglets and related governmental policy incentives have encouraged farmers to raise more pigs, pig raising still takes time," Bi told a press conference. "Since the number of piglets depends on the number of sows in stock, it could take about a year and a half for piglets to grow into sows, which in turn will bear more piglets for sale," he said.

"Despite a decrease in the number of live pigs for sale, the output of beef, mutton, poultry and eggs has been on the rise this year," Bi said, citing the production of milk which has increased 24 percent each year in recent years.

"That is to say, the supply of non-staple food as a whole is sufficient, which will also curb the price hike of pork to some extent," he said.

Due to short supply and mounting production costs, the price of pork, a common food of the Chinese, has almost doubled over the first seven months this year.

In August, however, the pork price had been on the decline for three consecutive weeks, with the price between August 20 and 26 down 3.3 percent week-on-week, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

Bi noted that short-term turbulence in the pork market was still "inevitable", adding the demand for pork could rise as the weather becomes cooler and the mid-autumn festival and National Day draw near.

"But in the long run, the pork price is unlikely to increase by a large margin," Bi said.

The official said the likelihood of China importing pork in large quantities was "very small".

"Few countries would satisfy China's demand if the world's largest pork producer were to import one million tons of pork or more from overseas every year," he said, adding the country's pork output reached 52 million tons last year, more than half of the world's total.

Led by the rising price of pork, food prices have been climbing in the past several months, pushing the consumer price index (CPI), a main barometer of inflation, up by more than 3.5 percent on average for the first seven months. The CPI in July hit 5.6 percent, the highest for 33 months.

Li Huiyong, senior economist with Shenyin Wanguo Securities was quoted by the China Business News as saying that the CPI could rise 5.8 percent in August and exceed six percent in October.

On Monday, the General Logistics Department of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) ordered all units to "take forceful measures" to ensure a stable food supply for soldiers.

"All army units should take measures fit for their own conditions to offset the impact of price hikes and ensure that soldiers' living standards do not drop," the department said.

(Xinhua News Agency September 5, 2007)