"With an increase in the number of women of child-bearing age in Shaanxi, the province will witness a birth peak in the coming 10 years," said Zhang Li, director of the Shaanxi Provincial Family Planning Committee.

The population in the province was registered at 36.89 million at the end of last year.

A survey undertaken in 2001 shows that from 2001 to 2010, the number of women of child-bearing age in Shaanxi is increasing at an average annual rate of 620,000 more than in the 1990s. The total number of women of child-bearing age has reached 10.28 million, some one-third of the total population in Shaanxi.

"And the birth rate will increase with contributions by those who were born in the early 1980s and are coming into their child-bearing age," the director said.

In accordance with the family planning policy issued by the central government, those couples who are both from one-child families can have a second child. "So the rates for second children will be increasing," Zhang said.

Shaanxi is one of the provinces with a large increase in population in China, and had 1.331 per cent increase in its birthrate and 0.762 percent of a natural increasing rate of population in 1997.

"After several years of effort made by local governments, the birthrate dropped to 1.1 percent and the natural increasing rate was 0.5 per cent in 2003 in Shaanxi, all lower than the average level in China," Zhang said.

In 2003, 405,000 babies were born in the province and the net population increase was less than 170,000, some 94,000 less than the annual estimate, according to local statistics.

"Though we had made achievements in this respect, the population pressure will remain for years, and till 2035 the birthrate will drop to zero per cent and then the population will decrease annually in Shaanxi," the director said.

Besides the comparatively high birth rate and increasing number of women of child-bearing age, Shaanxi also suffers from the high birth defect rates.

In 2003, Shaanxi's birth defects were 1.6 percent, higher than the national average, Zhang said.

"And Shaanxi is one of the provinces that have suffered from serious endemics and at present, the province has more than 3 million patients of various endemic diseases, one-10th of the total population," the director said.

Also, illiteracy and partially illiterate people from the age of 15 make up 7.3 percent of the total population in Shaanxi, higher than the national average level, Zhang said.

(China Daily August 30, 2004)