There is still much work to be done to promote sustainable growth
in China.
First, great peaks and valleys in economic development should be
prevented.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion over whether or not
China's macro-economy is overheated. The spectacular growth rate by
itself is not enough to justify such a conclusion. We also must
check whether the current rate of economic development can be
maintained.
China's economy is still investment-driven. But the increase in
fixed-asset investment, which greatly promoted economic development
over the past few years, cannot maintain the 26.7 per cent growth
rate it achieved last year. The potential for such a growth rate in
fixed investment has been almost exhausted. Research shows that
some industries and regions are actually haunted by excessive
investment.
Thus, action should be taken to stem this unhealthy trend.
Irrational investment aided by those in administrative positions
and redundant investment should be reined in.
Fast, stable and sustainable development is the basic
characteristic of the new economic trend we are trying to sustain.
The central bank has carried out a series of measures, such as
issuing new policies on mortgage loans and raising commercial
banks' required reserve ratio by 1 percentage point to 7 per cent,
in recent years. The effect of these policies has helped restrain
overheated growth and the effects of the revised bank credit system
are gradually being felt as well.
Macro-adjustment should not be a rigid uniformity, or taken as the
single solution for all problems. The relationship between supply
and demand and the overall balance of regional economies should be
considered.
An
existing problem is that "achievement projects" and "image
projects" ran rampant as local governments competed for a nominal
share of the increase of gross domestic product (GDP) numbers,
leading directly to administrative intervention in economic
activities for no good. A scientific concept of development is
expected to replace such GDP-guided achievement assessment before
long.
China's economy is continuing to gather strength. Yet past
experience shows that when a new administration takes charge, the
economy will go up first and then come down. What we need to do now
is to minimize such an impact and prolong the climbing curve.
Therefore, the market should replace administrative actions in
guiding investment, and consumption should replace investment as
the major driving force for economic growth.
Second, natural resources should be developed in a sustainable
way.
Entering the era of heavy chemical industry, the Chinese economy is
standing at a critical point. The rapid economic growth in some
regions has been accompanied by high energy consumption and serious
pollution. Such a mode of development should be strictly
restrained.
Shortage of resources and a deteriorating ecological environment
pose great threats to the long-term development of the national
economy.
The manufacturing industry has managed robust growth in this
country in past decades. But such development relies on imports of
energy sources and mineral resources more and more, which is a
potential crisis in our economic growth. Thus the current zeal to
build the "world's manufacturing base" in some eastern regions
should be watched. And more importance should be attached to
environmental protection and pollution control nationwide.
Third, a new efficiency-fairness doctrine should be developed.
Today the gap between the rich and the poor as well as between
urban and rural areas is widening. Chinese figure of the Gini
coefficient, which measures income inequality, is also close to the
internationally recognized danger level.
Undoubtedly, this is connected with the principle of giving
priority to efficiency with less consideration to fairness that we
have been following for a number of years. For a period, such a
principle played an important role in curbing equality in income
distribution and stimulating the market economy. But it must be
gradually phased out as China's economy and society develop.
Effective economic and social policies should be developed to
prevent further polarization of the rich and the poor and widening
of the urban-rural gap.
In
1992, Deng Xiaoping pointed out that the problem of the widening
gap between the rich and the poor should be dealt with when the
country's economic development reaches the well-off, or xiaokang,
level.
And it is obvious now that the growing income gap has gone beyond
the range of curbing equality and no longer contributes to the
improvement of efficiency. Rural labourers working in urban areas
are badly paid. And their pay is often withheld. Such unfairness
will only lower efficiency. And the low purchasing power of
low-income-earners has seriously limited the expansion of consumer
demand. Meanwhile, the widening income gap has become a major cause
of social instability.
An
important purpose of building a xiaokang society in an all-round
way is to realize common prosperity and bring benefit to the entire
Chinese population. Thus we should now lay equal stress on both
efficiency and fairness.
Governments at all levels should work to benefit the people through
expanding employment, increasing incomes and lowering housing
expenditures at the present stage.
When we solve the problems of overheated investment, shortage of
natural resources and the widening social gap, we can expect to see
a realization of the sustainable development of the country's
economy.
(China Daily March 30, 2004)
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