China, the world's most populous country, on Wednesday piloted its new birth rate forecasts in Shanghai.

The system was launched in Pudong New District to inform residents that the area faces a baby boom with a peak expected in 2012.

The number of births in the district will soar from the current 15,000 to 25,800 a year, according to the forecast system.

"Sharp increases or sudden declines in the birth rate are both bad news for social resources and individual development," said Yin Houqing, head of the district's social development bureau.

"Peaks and troughs in the population age structure trigger imbalances in school enrollments and the workforce," said Yin.

Imbalances cause unpredictable fluctuations in demand for education and health resources, employment, medical services and welfare for the aged, hindering sustainable development.

"The baby boomers will fight for delivery rooms in hospital and then for desks at school, for jobs in society, for sickbeds when they are old and even for graveyards when they die," said Xu Xinfang, who is also a 1980s baby boomer.

Tired of "fighting", a newly-married woman said she would only give birth after being able to study the birth rate forecast released by the government.

Many other places in China are also trying to publish birth rate forecasts to avoid baby booms.

A survey of birth rates in the next five years by Qingdao municipal government, in East China's Shandong Province, included a questionaire on people's family planning schedules.

The family program committee in Shanghai has already established a birth rate forecast system. The committee aims to publish the report at least twice a year.

However, many officials and experts worry that deep-rooted superstitions are the biggest stumbling block in applying the system nationwide.

China uses both a solar and a lunar calendar. In 2005, there was no spring according to the Chinese lunar calendar. As a result, many Chinese regarded the year as inauspicious and avoided getting married or having babies that year.

The situation will recur in 2007. And a small baby boom is inevitable this year. Many groundless superstitions are still influential in China. For instance, it is not good to have a daughter born in the Year of the Sheep.

"Popularizing the birth rate forecast system is also a means of eradicating superstition," said Ding Jinhong, a demographer with Shanghai-based East China Normal University.

(Xinhua News Agency September 21, 2006)