Global banking giant Deutsche Bank said in Beijing on Tuesday it
favors banking, infrastructure, health care, consumer goods sectors
in its 2007 China investment strategy.
Jun Ma, the bank's chief economist of Greater China and Head of
Macro Strategy for China and Hong Kong, said China's economic
growth for 2007 is likely to stay at par to 2006, which stood at
10.7 percent.
He explained that China's investment activities in the first
half of 2007 are estimated to rebound, the deceleration in export
growth is slower than expected, and companies profitability growth
remains strong.
"We believe construction materials, machinery and services are
direct beneficiaries of China's strong infrastructure spending
growth in the expressway, railway and subway sectors in the coming
years, he told reporters on the sidelines of its ongoing annual
Access China Conference in Beijing.
"Moreover, the health care sector -- medical equipment and
device sector-- will be the most significant beneficiary from the
government's initiative to provide universal health care for the
aging population."
"We believe the H-share index is likely rise 15 percent or more
by the end of the year", he said.
H-shares are securities issued by companies from the Chinese
mainland but traded on the Hong Kong stock market.
Despite a positive view of earnings outlook in the medium-long
run, Ma warned that that market correction is likely in the coming
months for the mainland stock markets.
"We anticipate regulators may tighten liquidity control, raise
interest rates and issue risk warning to contain inflation,
suppress over-heated A-shares market," he said.
Those and other measures would affect short-term investment
sentiment, he said.
He warned that worse-than-expected US economic figures for the
first quarter of this year, geo-political risks in the Middle East
and elsewhere and a sharp volatility of the international foreign
exchange markets may trigger correction in the global emerging
markets.
(Xinhua News Agency January 31, 2007)
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