"The economic stimulus package will boost domestic demand and help spur imports," Zhao said, adding the trade surplus was likely to shrink in 2009.

From January to November, foreign trade was US$2.38 trillion, jumping 20.9 percent year-on-year. The total comprised US$1.32 trillion in exports, up 19.3 percent, and US$1.06 trillion in imports, an increase of 22.8 percent, GAC figures showed.

That created a cumulative trade surplus of US$255.95 billion in the first 11 months, up 6.9 percent or US$16.39 billion from a year earlier, GAC said.

According to GAC, the EU remained China's top trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling US$392.94 billion in the first 11 months, jumping 22 percent over the same period last year. Trade between China and the United States, the second-biggest trade partner, rose 11.6 percent to US$307.82 billion.

Japan remained China's No. 3 trade partner with bilateral trade totaling US$246.23 billion, up 15.2 percent.

Recent talk of China depreciating the yuan, its currency, to boost exports, Zhao said, was just "guesswork".

A weaker yuan could help increase the competitiveness of Chinese-made products, but it would also cause a range of negative impacts, including increasing capital outflow and deteriorating trade friction and protectionism.

The government should stick to a relatively stable foreign currency policy, he said.

"There is only one problem with the above assumption, however, which is that it is completely wrong," Jonathan Anderson, UBS economist on emerging markets, said in a note provided to clients.

According to Anderson, as the dollar strengthened over the past few quarters, the yuan "should" have fallen back to around 7.6 to the US dollar in order to maintain basket parity. Instead, it stayed at 6.8 to the US dollar, which means the yuan has actually appreciated significantly in effective terms since the middle of the year.

"This would hardly be a signal that China has changed its broader currency stance at all, much less institute a 'weak renminbi' policy", he said.

Chinese currency has gained nearly 20 percent against the US dollar since July of 2005.

(Xinhua News Agency December 11, 2008)