Global warming could have a major effect on the health of the Chinese people and the country's agriculture, according to a National Assessment Report on Climate Change.

Temperatures could rise 1.3-2.1 degrees by 2020.

The report, China's first authoritative and comprehensive review compiled by multiple departments and experts over four years, was released in Beijing yesterday by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

The report is a study of global warming and its influence, and recommendations on the protection of society and the economy.

"The report will serve as the country's scientific and technical reference in policy making and international cooperation," said Li Xueyong, vice minister of MOST.

"It also shows China's attention to the global issue and its resolve to work together with the international community."

A synopsis of 2050 shows that China's population would exceed 1.5 billion with a gross domestic product per capita of US$10,000. Consumption of primary energy would stay between 3.9 billion to 4.9 billion tons of coal equivalent.

According to the report, the rise in temperatures would worsen the water shortage problem in north China, which already is serious.

It warned heavy rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, could trigger landslides or mudflows in the area of Three Gorges Dam.

The change could also affect with an increase in heart and blood diseases, malaria and dengue fever.

(China Daily December 27, 2006)