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When Will EU Economy Spring Come?

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As spillovers of the financial crisis are currently affecting the "real" economies around the globe, the economic prospects of the European Union (EU) and its member nations have become a focal point of worldwide attention.

Germany:

According to the latest annual economic forecast by the Federal Statistical Office, Germany will be in its deepest recession in 2009 ever since Federal Germany was established some two decades ago. Its economy will contract 2.25 percent this year but will hopefully "warm up" in the latter half of the year. Its foreign trade will slide 8.9 percent and the number of the jobless will reach 3.5 million at the end of 2009, and its inflation risks will have gone up, according to the forecast report.

The federal government first approved a 500-billion as federal "fictitious bailout" plan and latter ratified 32 billion and 50 billion euro rescue packages with money to be used for highways, schools and other public works projects. The second rescue package is the biggest-ever stimulus package Germany has ever thrashed out in the post-war period.

In addition to a recession for this year, Federal Germany has experienced four recessions or "years of crisis" over the past four-plus decades in 1967, 1975, 1982 and 1993 with its economic growth rate of -0.3 percent, -0.9 percent, -0.4 percent and -0.8 percent respectively, notes the German Der Spiegel weekly. From these figures, people can come to see how grave the extent of recession for this year can be!

It may not be so difficult for Germany in 2009 to keep the budget deficit within the EU-mandated limit of 3 percent of GDP, acknowledged German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck, but it will be hard to say for the next year.

Britain:

Official figures released on January 20 showed that the British government had run up total debts of 697.5 billion pounds, or 47.5 percent of GDP, by the end of 2008.

The British government announced a 400 billion pound bailout plan in October 2008, but without much substantial effect. On January 19, Prime Minister Gordon Brown approved a second rescue plan for Britain's ailing banks. Meanwhile, he announced to set aside as much as 50 billion pounds (or US$74 billion) to create a special fund for the Bank of England to buy high-quality government bonds in a bid to increase lending to related enterprises. According to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England recently, the British economy will bounce back by the year end of 2010.

For a long period of time, Britain has kept itself away from the euro zone, and the ongoing global financial crisis will give rise to a renewed debate about euro zone membership.

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